Of the 30 emerging technologies featured in Gartner’s latest Hype Cycle, nine are directly related to artificial intelligence:

• Generative adversarial networks
• Adaptive machine learning
• Composite AI
• Generative AI
• Responsible AI
• AI-augmented development
• Embedded AI
• Trusted AI
• AI-augmented design

Most of the AI technologies are currently in the initial “Innovation Trigger” part of the Hype Cycle, where excitement builds the fastest.

Responsible AI, AI-augmented development, embedded AI, and Trusted AI, have all now reached the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” and will next move into the dreaded “Trough of Disillusionment” as disappointment sets in over what can realistically be achieved.

Only after the trough, which none of the AI technologies have yet reached, do we head into the areas of the Hype Cycle where adoption occurs with realistic expectations and the productivity rewards are reaped.

Gartner’s Hype Cycle covers the next decade. The current placings of most of the AI technologies on the Hype Cycle indicates that Gartner believes it won’t be until towards the end of the decade we’ll see the most benefits.

Brian Burke, VP of research at Gartner, comments:

“Emerging technologies are disruptive by nature, but the competitive advantage they provide is not yet well known or proven in the market. Most will take more than five years, and some more than 10 years, to reach the Plateau of Productivity.

But some technologies on the Hype Cycle will mature in the near term and technology innovation leaders must understand the opportunities for these technologies, particularly those with transformational or high impact.”

Two technologies which Gartner expects to fast-track through the Hype Cycle are health passports and social distancing technologies, due to their necessity amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

You can find the full Gartner report here (paywall)

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The use of AI to increase productivity rather than replace human workers will help to quell some fears around the adoption of artificial intelligence.

Svetlana Sicular, Research Vice President at Gartner, said:

“Augmented intelligence is all about people taking advantage of AI.

As AI technology evolves, the combined human and AI capabilities that augmented intelligence allows will deliver the greatest benefits to enterprises.”

Gartner is predicting the adoption of AI will generate $2.9 trillion in business value in 2021. Furthermore, it will deliver the equivalent of 6.2 billion hours of worker productivity over the same timeframe.

Currently, the leading business value of AI is decision support/augmentation, followed by agents. By 2030, Gartner predicts this overall ranking will remain the same but the gap between will grow significantly with decision support/augmentation accounting for 44 percent of business value, and agents representing 24 percent.

“The excitement about AI tools, services and algorithms misses a crucial point: The goal of AI should be to empower humans to be better, smarter and happier, not to create a ‘machine world’ for its own sake,” added Sicular. “Augmented intelligence is a design approach to winning with AI, and it assists machines and people alike to perform at their best.”

Decision support/augmentation will have little impact on the workforce, but that doesn’t mean workers have nothing to fear. Agents, the second biggest expected driver of business value, will inevitably cause some job losses.

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