Of the 30 emerging technologies featured in Gartner’s latest Hype Cycle, nine are directly related to artificial intelligence:

• Generative adversarial networks
• Adaptive machine learning
• Composite AI
• Generative AI
• Responsible AI
• AI-augmented development
• Embedded AI
• Trusted AI
• AI-augmented design

Most of the AI technologies are currently in the initial “Innovation Trigger” part of the Hype Cycle, where excitement builds the fastest.

Responsible AI, AI-augmented development, embedded AI, and Trusted AI, have all now reached the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” and will next move into the dreaded “Trough of Disillusionment” as disappointment sets in over what can realistically be achieved.

Only after the trough, which none of the AI technologies have yet reached, do we head into the areas of the Hype Cycle where adoption occurs with realistic expectations and the productivity rewards are reaped.

Gartner’s Hype Cycle covers the next decade. The current placings of most of the AI technologies on the Hype Cycle indicates that Gartner believes it won’t be until towards the end of the decade we’ll see the most benefits.

Brian Burke, VP of research at Gartner, comments:

“Emerging technologies are disruptive by nature, but the competitive advantage they provide is not yet well known or proven in the market. Most will take more than five years, and some more than 10 years, to reach the Plateau of Productivity.

But some technologies on the Hype Cycle will mature in the near term and technology innovation leaders must understand the opportunities for these technologies, particularly those with transformational or high impact.”

Two technologies which Gartner expects to fast-track through the Hype Cycle are health passports and social distancing technologies, due to their necessity amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

You can find the full Gartner report here (paywall)

(Photo by Verena Yunita Yapi on Unsplash)

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Goke believes technologies such as AI will be so transformative in the next five years, if you fell asleep today – and woke up in 2025 – you’d struggle to recognise electronic devices.

“The Americans among us, you all know the fairytale story of a man in the 18th century who falls asleep under a tree and wakes up 20 years into a completely different world,” says Goke. “Well, I bet you if you would go to sleep right now for just five years, and wake up in time for 2025, you will struggle to recognise many consumer electronic devices.”

Goke says you’ll notice less people talking about the IoT (Internet of Things) as an emerging tech because it’s already becoming adopted at a rapid pace.

“Today, nearly every single home appliance has become a truly digital device ready to take its place in our smart homes,” comments Goke. “People don’t really talk about the IoT anymore because it’s just there, it’s the new normal.”

Just a few years ago, Goke says AI was “not something tangible” and “more of a promise than a real offering”.

As the CEO of Messe Berlin, an organiser and host of IFA Berlin, Goke has seen trends evolve over many years. At this year’s IFA, Goke says you’ll see the impact of AI and 5G coming to life. There are certainly more exhibitors than ever on the show floor talking about how they’re now using AI.

“You will see how connectivity and artificial intelligence are coming totally integrated into our digital world,” comments Goke. “They are about to completely transform our lives. And they will be ubiquitous. We all will use these technologies quite naturally without a second thought.”

Dr Reinhard C. Zinkann, member of ZVEI’s board of directors, also spoke of the adoption of AI in everyday devices. According to Zinkann, 72 percent of robot vacuums now feature “smart” technology.

“Clearly, artificial intelligence has made its way into the home appliances sector,” says Zinkann. “Even if you could sometimes have the feeling that the term is used in a somewhat inflationary way.”

“But it’s true, home appliances offer very promising possibilities for artificial intelligence technologies. By using data analysis, pattern recognition, and clever algorithms, appliances can be individually and dynamically adapted to the needs of users.”

Goke believes one emerging technology that people should temper their expectations about this year is 5G.

“Our industry is talking a lot about the promises of 5G, the next-generation high-speed mobile network,” states Goke. “Yes, 5G is being rolled out, it has the power to transform the way we live and work. But it’s also time for a reality-check.”

“Right now, there are only a few real 5G products around. However, that will be changing rapidly. I believe that 2020 could be the first year at IFA when 5G is ready for launch.”

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