There is still fierce debate about the impact that artificial intelligence will have on jobs. Some believe that AI will replace many jobs and lead to the requirement of a Universal Basic Income (UBI), while others claim it will primarily offer assistance to help workers be more productive.

Dorsey is a respected technologist with a deep understanding of emerging technologies. Aside from creating Twitter, he also founded Square which is currently pushing the mass adoption of blockchain-based digital currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Yang was seen as the presidential candidate for technologists before he suspended his campaign in February, with The New York Times calling him “The Internet’s Favorite Candidate” and his campaign was noted for its “tech-friendly” nature. The entrepreneur, lawyer, and philanthropist founded Venture for America, a non-profit which aimed to create jobs in cities most affected by the Great Recession. In March, Yang announced the creation of the Humanity Forward non-profit which is dedicated to promoting the ideas during his presidential campaign.

Jobs are now very much at threat once again; with the coronavirus wiping out all job gains since the Great Recession over a period of just four weeks. If emerging technologies such as AI do pose a risk to jobs, it could only compound the problem further.

In an episode of the Yang Speaks podcast, Dorsey warns that AI will pose a particular threat to entry-level programming jobs. However, even seasoned programmers will have their worth devalued.

“A lot of the goals of machine learning and deep learning is to write the software itself over time so a lot of entry-level programming jobs will just not be as relevant anymore,” Dorsey told Yang.

Yang is a proponent of a UBI. Dorsey said that such free cash payments could provide a “floor” for if people lose their jobs due to automation. Such free cash wouldn’t allow for luxurious items and holidays, but would ensure that people can keep a roof over their heads and food on the table.

UBI would provide workers with “peace of mind” that they can “feed their children while they are learning how to transition into this new world,” Dorsey explains.

Critics of UBI argue that such a permanent scheme would be expensive.

The UK is finding that out to some extent currently with its coronavirus furlough scheme. Under the scheme, the state will pay 80 percent of a worker’s salary to prevent job losses during the crisis. However, it’s costing approximately £14 billion per month and is expected to be wound down in the coming months due to being unsustainable.

However, some kind of UBI system is appearing increasingly needed.

In November, the Brookings Institute published a report (PDF) which highlights the risk AI poses to jobs. 

“Workers with graduate or professional degrees will be almost four times as exposed to AI as workers with just a high school degree. Holders of bachelor’s degrees will be the most exposed by education level, more than five times as exposed to AI than workers with just a high school degree,” the paper says.

In their analysis, the Brookings Institute ranked professions by their risk from AI exposure. Computer programmers ranked third, backing Dorsey’s prediction, just behind market research analysts and sales managers.

(Image Credit: Jack Dorsey by Thierry Ehrmann under CC BY 2.0 license)

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The career boasts a current average salary of $146,085 with a growth rate of 344 percent last year.

Tech-related jobs, in general, continue to be winners. Indeed set out to find the top 25 jobs for 2019 in their report and nine of them are comprised of tech roles.

Roles such as software developer continue to rank highly due to a high number of job openings, but machine learning engineer roles claim the number one spot due to higher salaries and faster growth.

A second AI-related job sits just outside the top 10. At number 13, ‘Computer Vision Engineer’ has a higher average base salary ($158,303)  than a machine learning engineer, but is ranked lower due to slower growth (116%).

Here’s the full list of top jobs in Indeed’s report:

Due to the increasing use of AI in companies’ operations, the report expects this growth to continue accelerating in the coming years.

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Retail is a major focus of AI but there’s debate over whether it will have a positive or negative on society, especially with regards to jobs. Some believe AI will assist existing jobs while others take a view it will replace workers.

Capgemini found just one percent of retailers have achieved the level of AI deployment needed to reach its full potential.

Kees Jacobs, VP of Global Consumer Products and Retail Sector at Capgemini, said:

“For global retailers, it appears reality has kicked in regarding AI, both in terms of what the technology can achieve and what they need to do to get there.

Of course, deploying and scaling will be the next big objective, but retailers should be wary not to chase ROI figures without also considering the customer experience.”

Most retailers, according to the researchers, are focusing their efforts on using AI for sales and marketing purposes. The company notes AI has the potential to be used across the value chain.

“Our research shows a clear imbalance of organizations prioritizing cost, data and ROI when deploying AI, with only a small minority considering the customer pain points also,” comments Jacobs.

“These two factors need to be given equal weighting if long-term AI growth, with all of the benefits it brings, is to be achieved.”

400 global retailers who’ve implemented AI were studied for the research; accounting for 23 percent of the global retail market by revenue. Public data from the world’s largest 250 retailers by revenue was also included.

Over a quarter (28%) of retailers had deployed AI in 2018, up from just 17 percent in 2017.

As for the job loss fears, 71 percent of the retailers said AI was creating jobs. However, 68 percent of the roles were of a senior level which could be out the reach of lower-skilled retail workers AI may displace.

Currently, 75 percent report AI has not replaced any jobs in their organisation.

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The professional services firm’s analysts predict, in the UK at least, the number of jobs destroyed by AI is likely to be counteracted by the number of roles created.

In fact, over the next 20 years, PwC expects around 7.2 million to be created versus seven million displaced – resulting in a small net jobs growth of around 0.2 million.

Euan Cameron, UK AI leader at PwC, said:

“AI offers a huge potential economic boost to the UK and it’s great to see the government recognise and support the development of the sector through the AI Sector Deal.

People are understandably worried about the impact of AI on jobs, and businesses and the government need to address these concerns head-on. Our research highlights where the biggest impacts will be and which areas are most vulnerable so that businesses and government can plan how best to help people develop the skills that will prepare them for the future.

It’s likely that the fourth industrial revolution will favour those with strong digital skills, as well as capabilities like creativity and teamwork which machines find it harder to replicate.

Historically, rapid technological change has often been associated with increases in wealth and income inequality, so it’s vital that government and business work together to make sure everyone benefits from the positive benefits that AI can bring. These include increased productivity and consumer choice, as well as improved outcomes in those areas that matter most to people such as education to healthcare.”

Many reports until now have taken hardline stances – either AI will drastically alter the jobs market and will require ideas such as UBI (Universal Basic Income) to be considered, or it will simply help to improve the efficiency of existing jobs.

PwC expects certain industries to be ‘winners’ in terms of job growth, while others will lose out.

Winners:

• • Health (+22%)

• • Professional, scientific and technical services (+16%)

• Education (+6%)

Losers:

• • Manufacturing (-25%)

• • Transport and storage (-22%)

• Public administration (-18%)

It’s notable that low-wage jobs are set to lose out the most. This highlights a particular risk to individuals such as factory workers who are most likely to be among the first to be replaced by artificial intelligence.

However, the report notes: “A job being at ‘high risk’ of being automated does not mean that it will definitely be automated, as there could be a range of economic, legal and regulatory and organisational barriers to the adoption of these new technologies.”

John Hawksworth, Chief Economist at PwC, commented:

“Major new technologies, from steam engines to computers, displace some existing jobs but also generate large productivity gains. This reduces prices and increases real income and spending levels, which in turn creates demand for additional workers. Our analysis suggests the same will be true of AI, robots and related technologies, but the distribution of jobs across sectors will shift considerably in the process.

Healthcare is likely to see rising employment as it will be increasingly in demand as society becomes richer and the UK population ages. While some jobs may be displaced, many more are likely to be created as real incomes rise and patients still want the ‘human touch’ from doctors, nurses and other health and social care workers.

On the other hand, as driverless vehicles roll out across the economy and factories and warehouses become increasingly automated, the manufacturing and transportation and storage sectors could see a reduction in employment levels.”

PwC recommends the government invests more in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) education to ensure the workforce is prepared for the needs of the future economy, while also increasing the ‘safety net’ for those who struggle to adapt.

Furthermore, the government should implement its AI strategy ‘in full’ to ensure policies support development of the sector and maximise the income effect of the rapidly-advancing technology on jobs in the UK.

The full results can be found in PwC’s UK Economic Outlook July 2018 report which can be found here (PDF)

Do you agree with PwC’s analysis of AI’s impact on the jobs market?

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Last week, our sister publication Developer reported AI skills are in such high demand that companies are willing to offer six figure salaries. Universities are unable to match these benefits and it’s creating a brain drain preventing the current lack of AI talent problem from being addressed.

The Guardian reports of a case from Imperial College London where a senior professor couldn’t understand why one of her students was not turning up to any classes. Most people wouldn’t pay £9,250 per year in tuition fees only to not turn up.

Eventually, the professor called her student to find out why he’d completed three years but wasn’t turning up for his final year. She found he was offered a six-figure salary at Apple.

Cases of private companies stealing academia talent is being reported up-and-down the country. With the AI skill shortage being a global issue, there’s a good chance this brain drain situation is not exclusive to the UK.

Plugging the AI brain drain

One potential solution is one backed by many citizens and employed with success in some Nordic countries, and that’s of introducing a pay cap. Those who put in the hours to learn advanced skills deserve to be paid more, but the difference between workers can often be grotesque.

In fact, according to an analysis published by the Equality Trust, the average FTSE chief executive earns 386 times more than a worker on the national living wage.

Capping salaries would also help to make the market more competitive by helping startups who are unable to match the buying power of the likes of Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Apple. These companies represent some of the handful of firms where talent is being disproportionately concentrated.

Tackling the tax avoidance of many large companies must also be a priority to ensure governments have the money to reinvest in education.

Of course, too much regulation can be counterproductive. Talent may flock to countries where there is no pay cap, and companies may decide to set up their businesses and the jobs they provide in other nations with less strict tax policies.

Some teachers are admirably turning down job offers from big companies despite the large salaries, greater resources, often less administrative duties, the ability to work alongside some of the best in the business, and on potentially groundbreaking projects. They do this just to ensure future generations can learn important skills.

These people are frankly heroes — there are not many of us who could turn down such attractive propositions. We salute you.

How should the brain drain in AI be tackled?

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Capgemini announced the findings into nearly 1,000 organisations today in its “Turning AI into concrete value: the successful implementer’s toolkit” study. 83 percent of the firms say the implementation of AI has generated new roles in their organisations while three-quarters have also seen an uplift in sales.

Further countering the idea that AI is destroying jobs; more than three in five (63%) of the organisations claim it has not resulted in any losses within their organisations.

Many organisations see artificial intelligence as a means to speed up tasks or automate mundane work for employees to spend time doing less routine or administrative tasks.

89 percent believe AI will make complex jobs easier and 88 percent think intelligent technologies will coexist with humans in their businesses. 71 percent have begun up-skilling or re-skilling employees in preparation.

“I think for every job that is lost, there will be many more jobs that are gained,” says the CTO of an unnamed large multinational corporation in the report. “The role of AI is not to replace humans, it is to augment humans. It is about helping us do what we do better.”

The research indicates that many organisations are yet to understand the full value potential offered by AI investments. 58 percent are focusing on ‘need to do’ implementations such as solving customer service issues, while just 46 percent are deploying ‘must do’ AI implementations with low complexity/high benefit. Firms tackling both simultaneously are set to gain the most.

In terms of regional adoption, Europe is falling behind. Countries such as Spain (31%), the Netherlands (24%) and France (21%) are further down the list in companies which have implemented AI. This is a stark comparison with countries such as India (58%) and Australia (49%).

You can find the full report here.

Are you concerned by the impact of AI on jobs? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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