The professional services firm’s analysts predict, in the UK at least, the number of jobs destroyed by AI is likely to be counteracted by the number of roles created.

In fact, over the next 20 years, PwC expects around 7.2 million to be created versus seven million displaced – resulting in a small net jobs growth of around 0.2 million.

Euan Cameron, UK AI leader at PwC, said:

“AI offers a huge potential economic boost to the UK and it’s great to see the government recognise and support the development of the sector through the AI Sector Deal.

People are understandably worried about the impact of AI on jobs, and businesses and the government need to address these concerns head-on. Our research highlights where the biggest impacts will be and which areas are most vulnerable so that businesses and government can plan how best to help people develop the skills that will prepare them for the future.

It’s likely that the fourth industrial revolution will favour those with strong digital skills, as well as capabilities like creativity and teamwork which machines find it harder to replicate.

Historically, rapid technological change has often been associated with increases in wealth and income inequality, so it’s vital that government and business work together to make sure everyone benefits from the positive benefits that AI can bring. These include increased productivity and consumer choice, as well as improved outcomes in those areas that matter most to people such as education to healthcare.”

Many reports until now have taken hardline stances – either AI will drastically alter the jobs market and will require ideas such as UBI (Universal Basic Income) to be considered, or it will simply help to improve the efficiency of existing jobs.

PwC expects certain industries to be ‘winners’ in terms of job growth, while others will lose out.

Winners:

• • Health (+22%)

• • Professional, scientific and technical services (+16%)

• Education (+6%)

Losers:

• • Manufacturing (-25%)

• • Transport and storage (-22%)

• Public administration (-18%)

It’s notable that low-wage jobs are set to lose out the most. This highlights a particular risk to individuals such as factory workers who are most likely to be among the first to be replaced by artificial intelligence.

However, the report notes: “A job being at ‘high risk’ of being automated does not mean that it will definitely be automated, as there could be a range of economic, legal and regulatory and organisational barriers to the adoption of these new technologies.”

John Hawksworth, Chief Economist at PwC, commented:

“Major new technologies, from steam engines to computers, displace some existing jobs but also generate large productivity gains. This reduces prices and increases real income and spending levels, which in turn creates demand for additional workers. Our analysis suggests the same will be true of AI, robots and related technologies, but the distribution of jobs across sectors will shift considerably in the process.

Healthcare is likely to see rising employment as it will be increasingly in demand as society becomes richer and the UK population ages. While some jobs may be displaced, many more are likely to be created as real incomes rise and patients still want the ‘human touch’ from doctors, nurses and other health and social care workers.

On the other hand, as driverless vehicles roll out across the economy and factories and warehouses become increasingly automated, the manufacturing and transportation and storage sectors could see a reduction in employment levels.”

PwC recommends the government invests more in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) education to ensure the workforce is prepared for the needs of the future economy, while also increasing the ‘safety net’ for those who struggle to adapt.

Furthermore, the government should implement its AI strategy ‘in full’ to ensure policies support development of the sector and maximise the income effect of the rapidly-advancing technology on jobs in the UK.

The full results can be found in PwC’s UK Economic Outlook July 2018 report which can be found here (PDF)

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While many are excited about the possibilities of artificial intelligence, just as many have concerns. Most agree that, whether it’s predominantly good or bad, AI will have a profound impact on society.

“Business leaders need to arm the workforce for a new ‘machine age’ of increasing artificial intelligence and automation,” says Duncan Tait, Head of Americas and EMIA at Fujitsu. “We have to face up to the fact that AI and automation will have a significant impact on the way we work – so let’s redevelop our workforces.”

Speaking to auditing giant KPMG, 71 percent of UK chief executives said they believe AI will create more jobs than it destroys in the short-term. This figure dips to 62 percent over the long-term.

(Image Credit: 2018 Global CEO Outlook, KPMG)

Businesses in the UK are ready to be pragmatic about change. 79 percent of UK CEOs believe that acting with agility is the new currency of business, compared to 59 percent of their global peers.

95 percent see technological disruption as more of an opportunity than a threat to their business, up 30 percentage points from 2017. 71 percent of CEOs report they are ‘personally ready to lead a radical organisational transformation.’

“More and more of the CEOs I speak to are telling me, ‘I am personally leading our digital charge’,” comments Mark Goodburn, Global Head of Advisory at KPMG. “That says to me, ‘I’m creative, adaptive and agile, and prepared to transform my business to be successful in a digital world’.”

Despite some concerns over global territorialism in the face of President Donald Trump’s America-first pledge and Brexit — 92 percent of UK CEOs have confidence in their growth prospects over the next three years, in comparison to 90 percent globally.

However, while UK CEOs are ready to embrace advancements, they believe their board members have unrealistic expectations of what to expect from digital transformation. 72 percent of UK CEOs report this as being the case in comparison to 51 percent globally.

Some companies still warn of job losses from artificial intelligence and robots.

“Humans will continue to do jobs in high-touch segments such as the arts, social enterprises and entertainment, selling and marketing – where humans pull on people’s heartstrings,” comments Masayoshi Son, Chairman of SoftBank. “But I believe that almost all blue-collar workers will be replaced by ‘metal collar’ workers… robots equipped with intelligence and super-intelligence.”

While there’s little consensus about the impact artificial intelligence will have on jobs and society as a whole – it’s at least some comfort the majority of CEOs believe AI will create, not destroy, jobs. And if not, at least they’re prepared to adapt.

You can find the key insights from KPMG’s 2018 Global CEO Outlook here (PDF)

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The three-day event is organised by MIT Technology Review and features some of the world’s most talented experts.

In the past, we’ve heard from the likes of Elon Musk saying AI will mean a ‘universal basic income’ will become necessary as more jobs become automated. Others counter this argument by claiming AI will not replace many jobs, but instead will help to make them easier.

Matching a human’s creativity is one such area where machines were expected to struggle for the foreseeable future. However, we’ve seen AI making large strides in this area.

On stage at Emtech China, Microsoft’s natural language processing researcher Ming Zhou showed how their AI programs are composing music and performing it on CCTV. Tencent’s AI Lab director, Tong Zhang, also showcased Dreamwriter — a robot reporter.

Earlier this month, Microsoft also demonstrated its AttnGAN project which uses AI to draw whatever is asked of it. The image below was drawn by the bot and would be quite difficult to differentiate from a photograph — you would at least think it was drawn by a professional artist.

©Microsoft

Right now, not all the examples are quite so impressive as the bird in Microsoft’s demo — but it shows how quick advancements are occurring. Part of the pace of these advancements is the battle for superiority between the U.S. and China which, even in other industries, appears to be as strong as ever.

Xiao’ou Tang, Professor at the Department of Information Engineering at CUHK, comments:

“At this point, we have so much to learn from the US. Of course, China has its unique advantages: we have a lot more scenarios for AI application and we have a lot more data that is allowed to be used and we don’t have such strict laws about data like in the US. And we have a leadership which is mostly engineers which is why we have this national policy to push for AI research. That’s the advantage on the Chinese side, but the idea is that we should collaborate.”

In the UK, the Centre for Cities has published a report which estimates that by 2030 nine areas could lose more than a quarter of jobs to automation and AI. Roles in shops, administration, and warehouses are the most at risk. Towns and cities with a ‘lower share of high-skilled jobs’ — such as Mansfield, Sunderland and Wakefield — face losing nearly 30 percent of their current roles.

“Automation and globalisation will bring huge opportunities, but there is also a real risk that many people and places will lose out,” says Andrew Carter, chief executive of Centre for Cities. “We need to reform the education system to give young people the skills to thrive in the future, and we also need greater investment in lifelong learning to help adults adapt to the changing labour market.”

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The report titled “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” was presented last month through the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Economists Anton Korinek (Johns Hopkins University) and Joseph E. Stiglitz (Columbia University) believe economic inequality “is one of the main challenges posed by the proliferation of artificial intelligence and other forms of worker-replacing technological progress.”

The disparity of wealth between the rich and the poor is a global issue. A report from Credit Suisse found the richest one percent own half of the world’s wealth.

“In the US, for example, the expected life spans of the poor and the wealthy have diverged significantly in recent decades, in part because of unequal access to healthcare and ever more costly new technologies that are only available to those who can pay,” they state.

Korinek and Stiglitz believe we’re heading for a period similar to the Great Depression when agricultural innovations meant fewer workers were needed to produce food.

“There are clear parallels to the situation today in that a significant fraction of the workforce may not have the skills required to succeed in the age of AI,” they wrote.

The researchers concur with a report we posted last September claiming AI will create more jobs overall, but a lack of relevant skills will mean a vast majority of the workforce are unprepared to fill them.

Rather than go down the route of a universal basic income, the researchers suggest job subsidies may be preferable in this new age. This is due to the argument that work can provide people with a feeling of purpose and dignity.

Until this point, the research is largely as many expected. The next part of the report is where it becomes highly speculative and the stuff previously reserved for science fiction.

The authors consider the possibility of the wealthy being augmented using AI to provide them with an economic advantage. This can be seen on a lesser scale today between the possiblities afforded to those who have access to higher-end technology, and those unable. Even the ownership of a car opens up far more possibilities.

“If intelligence becomes a matter of ability‐to‐pay, it is conceivable that the wealthiest (enhanced) humans will become orders of magnitude more productive – ‘more intelligent’ – than the unenhanced, leaving the majority of the population further and further behind,” they write.

Not only would this increase the wealth inequality between the richest and poorest in our societies, but it may also make them worse off in absolute terms. The report makes it clear that some form of policy intervention is needed.

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Capgemini announced the findings into nearly 1,000 organisations today in its “Turning AI into concrete value: the successful implementer’s toolkit” study. 83 percent of the firms say the implementation of AI has generated new roles in their organisations while three-quarters have also seen an uplift in sales.

Further countering the idea that AI is destroying jobs; more than three in five (63%) of the organisations claim it has not resulted in any losses within their organisations.

Many organisations see artificial intelligence as a means to speed up tasks or automate mundane work for employees to spend time doing less routine or administrative tasks.

89 percent believe AI will make complex jobs easier and 88 percent think intelligent technologies will coexist with humans in their businesses. 71 percent have begun up-skilling or re-skilling employees in preparation.

“I think for every job that is lost, there will be many more jobs that are gained,” says the CTO of an unnamed large multinational corporation in the report. “The role of AI is not to replace humans, it is to augment humans. It is about helping us do what we do better.”

The research indicates that many organisations are yet to understand the full value potential offered by AI investments. 58 percent are focusing on ‘need to do’ implementations such as solving customer service issues, while just 46 percent are deploying ‘must do’ AI implementations with low complexity/high benefit. Firms tackling both simultaneously are set to gain the most.

In terms of regional adoption, Europe is falling behind. Countries such as Spain (31%), the Netherlands (24%) and France (21%) are further down the list in companies which have implemented AI. This is a stark comparison with countries such as India (58%) and Australia (49%).

You can find the full report here.

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